New projections reveal what Sydney homes will cost in 25 years time

SYDNEY property prices would move from staggering to “ridiculous” by the middle of the century if they keep growing at their pace of the past 25 years.

The median price of a house would be $6.35 million by 2043, new projections show, up from $1.03 million today, while a typical unit would cost $3.47 million, up from $753,300.

The Aussie Home Loans and CoreLogic report assumed house prices continued to grow at 7.6 per cent a year, the average rate of increase since 1993, and unit prices repeated annual growth of 6.3 per cent.

If that growth held, Sydney’s cheapest suburb in 2043 would be Wilmot – with a median house price of $3.15 million – and the most expensive would be Bellevue Hill, with a median of $34.8 million.

Prices for Sydney’s best homes would be even higher. “Rona” – now the city’s priciest house for sale with an estimated value of $65 million – would be worth about $400 million in 2043.

Even if house prices grew at half the rate of the past 25 years, the estate on Bellevue Hill’s exclusive Ginahgulla St, would still be worth roughly $165 million.

Aussie Home Loans general manager Richards Burns said future prices may beggar belief but today’s prices would have elicited the same response in 1993 when the typical NSW house cost $94,700.

“If you told someone 25 years ago how much we’d be paying for property today they also would have found it hard to believe,”

Mr Burns said.

Aussie CEO James Symond said Sydney prices would grow over the long-term, despite a recent softening in values, due to high migration and population growth.

But he cautioned that affordability was a growing issue for Sydneysiders.

The typical household is spending 49.3 per cent of their income to service an 80 per cent loan on their property – significantly higher than the 36.4 per cent of income they were spending back in 2001.

The average Sydney buyer today is also dedicating 185 per cent of their annual gross income to raising a 20 per cent deposit, up from 116.8 per cent of annual income in 2001.

BIS Oxford Economics analyst Angie Zigomanis said it would be surprising if Sydney’s median reached $6.3 million by 2043.

“Prices would be ridiculous,” he said. “For that to happen, we have to have another 25 years of uninterrupted economic growth with no recession. It’s hard to know if that would actually happen.”

A far more likely scenario would be if prices rose at the same pace as inflation or wages growth. Even so, Mr Zigomanis said Sydney home prices would still be “very expensive”.

The Agency director Ben Collier, who is selling “Rona” in conjunction with Laing and Simmons agent Bart Doff, said one reason for soaring prices was homeowners’ willingness to invest more into their homes.

“Twenty years ago you’d be amazed if someone had invested $300,000 into a renovation,” Mr Collier said. “Now many are spending $8 million, or in the case of Rona, the owner spent $17 million rebuilding the inside of the home.”

Georgia Lunn said she felt “honoured’ to view Rona. “It’s one of the best homes I’ve ever seen,” she said. “The location is just beautiful and for such a grand estate it still has a homely feel. It takes your breath away.”


(by median house price)

Bellevue Hill $34.8m, Vaucluse $28.4m, Longueville $26.7m, Dover Heights $25m, Bronte $23.6m


Willmot $3.15m, Tregear $3.2m, Lethbridge Park $3.26m, Shalvey $3.28m, Whalan $3.33m

Daily Telegraph /June 9, 2018


Back on track: What’s behind the rising tsunami of first-home buyers in Sydney

It appears that Gen-Y may have stopped crying into their smashed avocado and have become the cohort of entry-level buyers enjoying brunch in their own homes.

Only last year, the picture was very different: many first-home buyers were in a state of dismay with the prospect of home ownership, a mere pipe dream.

The market was running hot and wages growth was non-existent. Saving a deposit was mightily unrealistic under such conditions.

Between then and now, the government has thrown several lifelines to this dwindling buyer segment. The NSW Government introduced incentives and grants aimed at addressing affordability and these initiatives have helped to create a tsunami of first-home buyers.

Almost 20,800 first-home buyers have hopped onto the property ladder since the initiatives began. This equates to a 75-per-cent rise in loan activity compared to the year before, according to ABS housing finance data from July 2017 to March 2018.

State government incentives are clearly enabling a higher degree of home ownership, coupled with moderating prices, and fewer investors to compete against. It could be considered that these are the best buying conditions for entry-level buyers in several years.

As the end of the financial year draws to an end, a new opportunity arises. Many aspiring home owners will welcome the prospect of accessing their hard-earned cash ploughed into their superannuation under the First Home Super Saver Scheme. Another lifeline – strategy implemented by the Federal Government to help address home-ownership rates.

The fundamentals of this scheme are rational for some: it allows would-be first-home buyers to make additional contributions to their superannuation, reap the benefits of the concessional tax treatment and watch their savings grow (particularly since most superannuation accounts perform better than a bank deposit). The maximum contribution is $15,000 a year, capped at $30,000 for the life of the scheme.

Fast approaching, July 1 marks the date that aspiring first-home buyers who used the scheme can release voluntary contributions and associated earnings.

Although when setting a property budget, bear in mind that contributions are taxed at your marginal tax rate minus a 30 per cent tax offset.

Just the thought of these schemes and grants could make any first-home buyer dizzy. The path to home ownership is confusing and still financially tough.

Sydney is Australia’s most expensive city to buy, with a seven-digit median house price and median unit price higher than the house of every other major city except Melbourne.

The picture-perfect three-bed family residence on a quarter-acre block is a receding first-home dream. Even in light of the initiatives that address housing affordability, prices remain high and the path to home ownership is still not easy.


SMH/ 2 June 2018 

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